Are data on predators necessary when modeling prey population dynamics?

V. G. Soukhovolsky ^a, *, Y. D. Ivanova ^b, and A. V. Kovalev ^c

^aSukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS
Akademgorodok, 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
^bInstitute of Biophysics SB RAS
Akademgorodok, 50/50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
^cFederal Research Center KSC SB RAS
Akademgorodok, 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
*e-mail: soukhovolsky@yandex.ru

A new approach is proposed for building a model of the prey population in the “predator–prey” system without using data on the dynamics of the predator numbers. To replace these data, autoregressive models with a set of linear positive and negative feedbacks are considered, which replace data on the influence of predator populations. The proposed approach can be used to model local populations of animals, for which there are no complete data on their interactions with other species in the ecosystem.