Modeling critical events in forest insect populations

V. G. Soukhovolsky^{a, c,} *, O. V. Tarasova^b, **, A. V. Kovalev^c, ***

^aSukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS
Akademgorodok, 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
^bSiberian Federal University
Av. Svobodny, 79, Krasnoyarsk, 660041 Russia
^cFederal Research Center KSC SB RAD
Akademgorodok, 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
*E-mail: soukhovolsky@yandex.ru
**E-mail: olvitarasova2010@yandex.ru
***E-mail: sunhi.prime@gmail.com

Methods for modeling critical phenomena in forest insect populations are considered, based on the presentation of the processes of outbreaks development as analogues of first- and second-order phase transitions in physical systems. Measured indicators characterizing the processes of phase transitions are proposed. The models of the population dynamics are considered for forest insects of the genus Dendrolimus. To describe the long-term dynamics of forest insect populations, taking into account the influence the population densities in previous years and the influence of modifying factors on the current population density, it is proposed to use ADL (autoregressive distributed lag) models. A high degree of agreement of the proposed models with the observational data is shown. The proposed approach requires minimal data on the ecosystem’s variables. It is assumed that phase transition models and ADL models can be used to describe such phenomena as viral and bacterial epidemics, mammalian population increases, etc.