aaSukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS
Akademgorodok, 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
bFederal Research Center KSC SB RAD
Akademgorodok, 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 Russia
*E-mail: soukhovolsky@yandex.ru
**E-mail: sunhi.prime@gmail.com
The task of modeling the development of the coronavirus pandemic on the planet is considered. Аn analysis is conducted aimed at identifying the three types of patterns in the development of coronavirus: assessing the existence of critical disease densities, assessing the patterns of the disease spread by country and different territories within a particular country, modeling the relative dynamics of the incidence in individual countries. For modeling, it is proposed to use analogues of models of first- and second-order phase transitions in physical systems and autoregressive models of the disease development. Calculations are made of the critical number of patients, upon reaching which the exponential stage of the disease development begins, the rate of development of the disease in different countries and in different territories.
