Mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere

A.M. Tarko

Institution of Russian Academy of Sciences Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of RAS
119333 Moscow, ul Vavilova, 40
е-mail: tarko@himki.net

Changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperatures of the atmosphere, and parameters of land biota as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, forest clearance, and soil erosion are calculated in a spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere. Restrictions on the CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere are deduced from the requirements of Kyoto Protocol to The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other scenarios. An ability is revealed for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration to grow fast, which arises from a number of emerging and developing countries with large population and high CO₂ emission rates and which surpasses greatly the effect of growth retardation due to Kyoto Protocol. Those countries' role will become mostly apparent to the year of 2060 and later. Russia has shown to be in an exclusive position relative to other countries: ecosystems of its territory absorb more of the atmospheric carbon dioxide than does any other country, and the inductrial emissions from its territory are practically equal to the absorption by ecosystems.